Virgin Atlantic is ending London Heathrow to Islamabad and Lahore. As its last Manchester-Islamabad flight was in October, it will cease all flying to Pakistan. Until Pakistan International (PIA) returns – using its own metal or more wet-leased aircraft – the changes mean that there will be just one UK-Pakistan route: British Airways between Heathrow and Islamabad. How things have changed.

No more Virgin to Pakistan

Virgin started Heathrow-Islamabad more than two years ago on December 12th, 2020. A day later, Heathrow-Lahore lifted off. The core reason for launching Pakistan routes was the absence of PIA because of its EU/UK ban, which still exists. While PIA was using wet-leased aircraft to circumvent the ban, it is not currently doing so.

In 2019, PIA had 95% of the UK's non-stop Pakistan seats for sale, according to OAG data. Its ban resulted in a large gap and opportunity. It was one that BA seized too. As Virgin's core markets were still off-limits because of the pandemic, it had the aircraft available to capitalize on it. The appeal of Pakistan was also because of visiting friends and relatives (VFR) demand, around which UK-Pakistan revolves, performed very well during the pandemic.

Click here for London-Islamabad flights.

Currently, Virgin operates Heathrow-Islamabad three weekly using the 787-9; the last outbound from the UK is April 30th (May 1st inbound). To Lahore, Virgin runs four to five weekly, also by the 787-9, benefiting from the exit of British Airways last year. But it wasn't enough. The last Heathrow departure is July 8th (returns on the 9th).

Click here for London-Lahore flights.

Image: GCMap.

Always planned to be short-lived?

It would be easy to conclude that the routes didn't perform well enough. Yes, UK-Pakistan has good passenger volume. In 2022, Heathrow-Islamabad had approximately 260,000 passengers (up from 244,000 in 2019), while Heathrow-Lahare had about 190,000 passengers (173,000 in 2019). Obviously, over half of the passengers flew via Middle East hubs, such is the amount of easy one-change options.

While traffic was good, VFR markets are known for being the lowest of the low for airline yields, precisely what's not needed when relatively premium aircraft and very expensive slots are at play.

It is likely that Virgin's Pakistan experiment was always planned to be short-lived. The airline can now deploy its 787s – with 31 business seats and 35 in premium economy – where it feels they'll be best placed. As China reopens, it will return to Shanghai from May 1st (daily; 787-9), while Tel Aviv will be double daily this summer (some flights by the 787-9).

It will also grow Heathrow to Austin to daily (September; 787-9), while introducing Heathrow to the Maldives (October; 787-9) and Turks and Caicos (November; 787-9). In all of these markets, premium demand is higher. It is unclear to what degree Virgin joining SkyTeam impacted the decision-making.

Photo: Virgin Atlantic.

Seven routes in 2019

There were seven non-stop routes from the UK to Pakistan in 2019, with over 800,000 roundtrip seats for sale. In order of capacity, they were Manchester-Islamabad, Heathrow-Islamabad, Birmingham-Islamabad, Heathrow-Lahore, Manchester-Lahore, Heathrow-Karachi, and Heathrow-Siakot (weekly from September 2019). After Virgin ends Heathrow-Pakistan, there will be just one route left: BA's Heathrow-Islamabad. That is until PIA returns at some point.

What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comments.