Airbus secured a big win in the Indian market yesterday with Air India’s commitment for a total of 250 airplanes. Within that order was a sizeable demand for the popular A320neo narrowbody family, accounting for 210 airplanes in total. But how will that order be broken down, will the LR and XLR feature, and could the Air India A320neo fleet end up being even bigger than this?
A look at the A320neo order
Air India ordered a total of 210 A320neo family aircraft from Airbus yesterday. These are split into 140 A320neos and 70 A321neos. Simple Flying asked Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christan Scherer whether some of those A321s would be LR or even the XLR variants. He noted,
“Some flexibility exists to adapt the exact takeoff weight or capability of the aeroplane or the tankage capacity of the aeroplane to evolving market needs, but right now, it is focused on the core product, the A320neos and the A321neos.”
It’s important to note that all the aircraft included in this announcement are brand-new orders. But that doesn’t mean they will be the only A320neo family aircraft that arrive with Air India in years to come. Scherer explained,
“None of these airplanes have been previously accounted for - these are strictly incremental new orders. However, the need for capacity of Air India, particularly on the domestic and regional sectors, could not be all fulfilled by Airbus.”
So what will Air India do to plug the gap until its manufacturing slots get to the front of the Airbus queue?
Turning to lessors
Although Airbus is committed to supplying the A320neo family aircraft to Air India, it is unlikely these will be delivered for some years to come. The A320neo backlog, as of the end of January, stands at more than 7,000 airplanes. The manufacturer is pushing toward a production rate of 65 aircraft per month by the summer of this year, but the environment remains complex.
Scherer noted that, with the best will in the world, the new A320s for Air India probably won’t start delivering until the ‘tail end of the 2020s’. Air India will be unwilling to wait so long to begin expanding its regional activities, and the cushion for this will inevitably be lessors, as Scherer explained,
“As you know, we're supply-constrained; this whole industry is supply-constrained at the moment and for the foreseeable future. And therefore, whilst it may be a mild frustration for me not to have been able to sell more planes to Air India in the earlier years, Air India will indeed turn to the leasing companies that have secured capacity before we were in this supply-constrained to procure additional capacity.”
Air India already announced it would lease 12 more airplanes, including six A320neo and six Boeing 777s. Scherer noted that the airline is planning to lease another 25 Airbus A320s and A321s from lessors to plug the gap until new planes can start arriving. He believes more will come before the brand-new aircraft start arriving from Airbus, noting that,
“I would not be surprised if there's more in the earlier years before we start delivering ex-factory in the latter part of the decade our 210 new orders.”
How big will the fleet be?
So how big could the Air India A320neo fleet be ultimately? That remains to be seen. The Indian flag carrier needs to balance demand and supply carefully, and while it will be keen to grow, it cannot do so unsustainably. What can be said for sure is that the 210 aircraft announced as ordered from Airbus yesterday are likely just the tip of the iceberg.
The airline will not only build its capacity with the A320 family, however. It will also induct India’s first Airbus widebody - the A350-900 - likely before the end of this year, as it will take unclaimed aircraft originally destined for Aeroflot. Later, a fleet of 34 A350-1000s will begin to arrive.
On the Boeing side, Air India anticipates a fleet of 190 737 MAX for its narrowbody operations, with options for 50 more. While the breakdown of types is unknown for now, Boeing has indicated both the MAX 8 and 10 are included in the order. Should Boeing remarket jets once destined for China to Air India, these could begin arriving very quickly.
As for widebodies, the fleet of 787-9s will number 20, with options for 20 more, and the 10 777-9s will round out the operations as the largest aircraft in the fleet.
Should all options be exercised, that makes for a total of 500 new aircraft destined for Air India over the coming years. Add to that the existing fleet, which includes some relatively new A320neos and the 787-8, it’s not unreasonable to consider Air India with a fleet of 600 or more aircraft in 10 years' time.
How big do you think Air India’s fleet will be? Let us know in the comments below.